Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 58.596164 68.496949 79.257547 91.783062 105.922206 121.347949 139.408701
2024-12-15 44.195489 57.632959 73.554708 93.641641 118.122586 146.796798 182.713427
2024-12-22 32.391841 46.277420 63.937757 87.694402 118.420007 156.391782 206.384153
2024-12-29 27.365525 42.107062 61.950340 90.018041 128.009238 176.890304 243.656709
2025-01-05 22.646060 37.371081 58.267190 89.210909 132.839593 191.006376 273.041656
2025-01-12 20.735391 36.264210 59.276711 94.638283 146.138347 216.739944 318.814079
2025-01-19 16.629612 31.112868 53.670371 89.811309 144.380459 221.517458 336.092200
2025-01-26 15.022017 29.681758 53.440952 92.780704 153.869132 242.278638 376.322332
2025-02-02 14.247336 29.515879 55.122326 98.721036 168.035010 270.331627 428.081624
2025-02-09 12.969634 28.254030 54.825657 101.400013 177.259596 291.474845 470.655170
2025-02-16 11.668895 26.742014 53.904502 102.897565 184.606265 310.030230 510.071310
2025-02-23 10.266917 24.810307 52.011420 102.533059 188.833505 323.904050 542.909352
2025-03-02 9.011288 23.130890 50.668876 103.509226 196.178641 344.319922 588.838842
2025-03-09 7.954332 21.707693 49.682101 105.117383 204.874273 367.651338 640.977401
2025-03-16 6.213650 18.384296 44.529546 98.522326 198.899673 366.950105 655.207716
2025-03-23 5.600097 17.563517 44.282380 101.078898 209.077465 393.101495 713.372499
2025-03-30 4.788321 16.063062 42.385102 100.189198 212.899681 408.727345 755.012991
2025-04-06 4.585600 16.117000 43.867790 106.166703 229.704887 447.144571 835.723587
2025-04-13 3.661287 13.953857 40.046894 100.850694 224.878029 447.937332 853.575026
2025-04-20 3.374627 13.568821 40.304946 104.121439 236.657701 478.291956 922.553467
2025-04-27 3.286143 13.774955 42.012609 110.659768 255.186278 521.402884 1014.907575
2025-05-04 3.019844 13.350334 42.097110 113.606408 266.737516 552.418614 1087.415249
2025-05-11 2.721719 12.742917 41.630164 115.253058 275.739787 579.140312 1153.338579